Bitcoin Breaks Out on Geopolitical Shift

PLUS: Warsh Faces Senate

April 22nd, 2026

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Moving back into my parents’ house after not taking profits on Fartcoin. Guess I’ll be listening to Tesla earnings from their living room.

Here’s what we’re watching:

  • Market Snapshot

  • Bitcoin Breaks Out on Geopolitical Shift

  • What We’re Watching

  • Warsh Faces Senate

CRYPTO
BitcoinBitcoin$79,025.00 +4.29%
EthereumEthereum$2,400.48 +4.15%
SolanaSolana$88.55 +3.11%
MACRO
S&P 500S&P 500$7,123.60 +0.84%
NasdaqNasdaq$24,555.97 +1.22%
Dow JonesDow Jones$49,526.74 +0.77%
GoldGold$4,753.60 +1.17%
DXYDXY$98.54 +0.13%
VIXVIX19.17 -1.69%
Data is provided by CoinGecko and Yahoo Finance.

Market: Crypto leading, BTC above $79K, ETH and SOL strong, while falling VIX signals risk on.

Bitcoin Breaks Out on Geopolitical Shift

What’s going on:

Bitcoin just broke above $78,000, its highest level in 11 weeks.

The move followed Trump extending the Iran ceasefire indefinitely, easing tensions that were set to escalate.

He cited a “fractured” government in Tehran and said the pause will last until Iran submits a unified proposal.

Markets reacted fast. BTC is up +2% in the last 24 hours and +5% on the week, with around $240M in shorts liquidated.

Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss just flipped positive for the first time since early January, and whales are accumulating at the fastest pace since July 2025.

What it means:

Momentum is clearly building again.

You’ve got macro relief, short liquidations fueling the move, and onchain data confirming strength, all lining up at once.

If this continues, Bitcoin could be setting up for a stronger leg higher.

MegaETH:
Teased upcoming product announcements, with its Head of Ecosystem hinting that new launches are coming soon.

Polymarket:
Introducing pUSD as the main settlement currency and a new architecture to reduce failed trades and improve reliability.

AAVE:
Has seen $15B in outflows following the KelpDAO exploit, signaling significant capital flight from the protocol.

TRON:
Justin Sun filed a federal lawsuit against World Liberty Financial, alleging $776M in WLFI tokens were frozen, his voting rights removed, and his holdings threatened with a burn.

Warsh Faces Senate

What’s going on:

Kevin Warsh just took the hot seat in front of the Senate as Trump’s pick to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair.

The focus? His independence, rate policy, and (of course) his crypto (Solana, Polymarket and more).

On rates, Warsh pushed back hard on the idea he’d be a puppet.

He said Trump never asked him to lock in rate decisions and made it clear he’d act independently.

Still, his tone leaned hawkish.

He called inflation “improving, but not done,” and signaled a preference for tighter policy, a smaller Fed balance sheet, and less QE.

What it means:

Short term? Not great.

Hawkish vibes = tighter liquidity = pressure on risk assets.

But zoom out. Warsh has a track record of saying the Fed keeps rates too high for too long.

And unlike most candidates, he actually owns crypto and has called Bitcoin “the new gold for people under 40.”

If he shifts dovish later (think H2 2026), that’s when things get interesting.

More liquidity, more risk appetite… and a potential path for BTC back toward $100K.

Two forces are colliding right now: macro relief is pushing Bitcoin higher, while Fed uncertainty is keeping markets on edge.

The short term might stay choppy as rate expectations clash with improving sentiment.

But under the surface, liquidity and positioning are quietly turning constructive again.

If those tailwinds stick, this setup could resolve much higher than most expect.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.