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- Bitcoin Beats Gold After Every Crisis
Bitcoin Beats Gold After Every Crisis
PLUS: $280M Drift Exploit Was a 6-Month Inside Job
Welcome back to The Warmup.
Happy Monday! I’m heading to my computer so I can 10x the $25 my grandma sent me for Easter.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
Bitcoin Beats Gold After Every Crisis
$280M Drift Exploit Was a 6-Month Inside Job
Calendar
Market: Crypto is leading the move with Ethereum and Solana showing strong momentum, while a slight drop in the dollar adds tailwinds even as volatility ticks higher.
Bitcoin Beats Gold After Every Crisis
What’s going on:
Bitcoin outperforms both Gold and the S&P 500 in the 60 days following major global crises.
Across multiple shock events, BTC delivered the strongest recovery returns every single time.
After the COVID-19 market crash, Bitcoin climbed 21% in the following 60 days, beating both gold and equities.
The same thing happened after the 2025 U.S. tariff shock, with BTC up 24% vs. 8% for gold and 4% for stocks.
Even now, amid rising geopolitical tensions, BTC is holding up better. It’s up ~2.2%, while gold is down ~11% and the S&P 500 has dropped ~4.4%.
What it means:
Early in a crisis, everything can dip as investors rush to cash. The outperformance tends to show up in the recovery phase, not the panic.
Bitcoin isn’t acting like a traditional safe haven… it’s acting like a high-beta recovery asset.
It may not protect you in the initial chaos, but historically, it’s been one of the fastest to bounce back once the dust settles.
Translation: panic is noisy, recovery is where BTC shines.
$280M Drift Exploit Was a 6-Month Inside Job
What’s going on:
Drift Protocol revealed its $280M exploit was actually a six-month-long social engineering operation.
Attackers posed as a legit quant trading firm and built relationships with contributors at real-life crypto conferences.
They gained trust over time, joined workflows, and even deposited $1M+ of their own capital to appear credible.
From there, they compromised contributors through a malicious code repository and a fake wallet app.
They quietly collected multisig approvals in advance, setting the stage without raising alarms.
When the attack went live, they used pre-signed transactions and a mechanism on Solana to take control and drain funds in minutes.
Investigators link the attack to the same group behind the Radiant Capital hack.
What it means:
This is a shift in how attacks happen.
It’s no longer just about breaking code, it’s about infiltrating teams and exploiting trust.
If this trend continues, the biggest vulnerability in crypto won’t be smart contracts… it’ll be the humans behind them.
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Key Events this Week
Major token unlocks:
Linea (LINEA): ~$5M unlock on Apr 10 (~5% of supply)
Aptos (APT): ~$10M unlock on Apr 12 (~1% of supply)
Macroeconomic data calendar:
Mon (Apr 6):
March ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services PMI): Tracks activity in the services sector → above 50 signals expansion, below 50 suggests slowdown in the largest part of the US economy.
Tue (Apr 7):
Trump “Iran Power Plant and Bridge Day”: Geopolitical event tied to Donald Trump → potential catalyst for sudden market reactions, especially in oil and risk assets.
Wed (Apr 8):
Fed Meeting Minutes: Insights from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting → markets look for clues on rate cuts, inflation outlook, and policy stance.
Thu (Apr 9):
February PCE Inflation Data: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge → higher readings may delay rate cuts, lower readings support easing expectations.
US Q4 2025 GDP (Final): Measures economic growth → strong GDP supports risk assets, weak data raises recession concerns.
Fri (Apr 10):
March CPI Inflation Data: Key inflation metric → higher CPI = more pressure on the Fed to stay restrictive.
April Michigan Inflation Expectations: Tracks consumer views on future inflation → rising expectations can reinforce inflation fears.
April Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Measures consumer confidence → stronger sentiment suggests resilient spending, weaker signals caution.
What’s the biggest risk in crypto right now? |
Markets may stay choppy, so don’t wait for the perfect entry that probably never comes.
Start building your position slowly by buying in small chunks over time instead of going all in.
Focus on high-quality assets and keep some cash ready in case prices dip further.
If the market shows strength, increase your exposure, but if it stays weak, stay patient and stick to your plan.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.