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Are We Finally Turning the Corner?
PLUS: Prediction Markets Just Got Spicy
Welcome back to The Warmup.
Crypto guys have been waiting for altseason so long they’re starting to treat it like a myth, but hope stays undefeated.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
Prediction Markets Just Got a Plot Twist
SOL Resistance Setup
Markets Are Finally Showing a Pulse
Market: Green across the board. Crypto’s ticking up, equities are pushing higher, and a falling VIX signals risk appetite creeping back in.
Prediction Markets Just Got a Plot Twist
What’s going on:
Two big rulings just landed, and they sent the industry in totally different directions.
Polymarket scored a major win after the CFTC officially approved it to operate in the US through regulated partners. A full turnaround from its 2022 crackdown.
Kalshi wasn’t as lucky.
A Nevada judge lifted the injunction that was protecting them, giving the state power to treat their event markets like regular sports bets. That means Kalshi must either block Nevada users or apply for a full gaming license.
What it means:
It’s a mixed day for the future of prediction markets.
Polymarket now has a federal green light, but the Nevada decision creates a blueprint for other states to push back. More appeals and more courtroom battles are almost guaranteed.
One win, one setback, and the fight for national prediction markets is far from over.
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SOL Resistance Setup
What’s going on:
SOL is pushing into a major resistance block around $144 to $146. This zone has rejected price multiple times, and momentum is slowing as it approaches it again.
The chart suggests a possible reaction or double-top style rejection if buyers fail to break through.
Key levels we’re watching:
Support: $132 → strong demand from the last bounce
Resistance: $144–$146 → heavy supply zone highlighted on the chart
Breakout target: $157+ if SOL can flip resistance into support
Rejection target: $135–$138 range if the zone holds
Directional Bias: Neutral with a bearish lean
Momentum is improving, but bulls need a clean break and hold above 146 to shift the structure. Until then, this is a classic lower-timeframe test of supply.
What we’re waiting for:
Reaction inside the $144–$146 zone
High-volume breakout or clear rejection pattern
Low-leverage long entries only if resistance flips into support
SOL is at a key pivot. The next move depends entirely on how it behaves in that resistance block.
Markets Are Finally Showing a Pulse
What’s going on:
After weeks of red candles bullying everyone, we’re finally seeing some green sneak back in.
So what shifted? It’s not whales or hype. It’s macro. Rate cut expectations flipped hard. Four days ago markets expected no cut in December. Today there is an +80% chance of a quarter-point cut.
Cheaper loans mean more spending power. More spending power means more liquidity. And some of that liquidity always ends up in assets like crypto.
But before anybody starts victory dancing, here’s the catch.
Right now money is rushing into alts faster than it is into BTC. When that happens, BTC dominance dips. That kind of move is usually short lived and not the “real recovery” signal.
What we want to see is the classic rotation: capital flowing into BTC first, then ETH, then the rest of the market.
What it means:
We are not back yet. We are seeing the first hints of stability, but the base is not fully rebuilt.
If BTC dominance starts rising again, that is when the foundation for the next true leg begins to form.
Until then, enjoy the green, stay patient, and keep your watchlist tight.
Is this the start of a real recovery? |
We believe crypto hasn’t topped yet, and the recent dip looks more like a big opportunity than the end of the bull run.
The long-term data, global liquidity trends, and past cycle patterns all point to stronger upside heading into 2026.
Most of the selling pressure has come from short-term fear, while smart money continues to accumulate.
If the macro backdrop stays supportive, this next phase could be a strong run.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.