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- Aave Is Breaking in Public
Aave Is Breaking in Public
PLUS: Maple Is Standing Out in DeFi Lending
Welcome back to The Warmup.
Santa showed up everywhere this year except crypto.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
Aave’s Governance Crisis
Bitcoin Inflection Play
Maple Is Standing Out in DeFi Lending
Market: Crypto is cooling slightly while equities hold steady and gold moves higher, suggesting a healthy pause rather than risk off.
Aave’s Governance Crisis
What’s going on:
Aave is in the middle of a full-blown governance fight between Aave Labs and the Aave DAO.
It kicked off after Aave Labs integrated CoWSwap into the Aave frontend. Onchain data showed swap fees flowing to a Labs-controlled wallet, not the DAO.
Delegates called it stealth privatization, estimating the DAO could be missing ~$10M per year.
Radical proposals followed, including seizing Aave’s brand, IP, domains, and socials.
Labs pushed back, saying the frontend is theirs, this was never a fee switch, and past revenue was voluntary.
Now voting is live.
Stani voted against. Major delegates abstained. The DAO is almost certainly losing, with markets like Polymarket previously giving DAO control low odds.
What it means:
This isn’t about CoWSwap. It’s about who actually owns a protocol.
If the DAO loses, options get ugly: fork the frontend, go legal, or accept that governance tokens don’t equal ownership.
Either way, Aave is setting a precedent for all of DeFi.
Bitcoin Inflection Play
What’s going on:
Bitcoin is trading right above a key ascending support at ~$86,700, sitting inside what looks like a bear flag structure.This is a decision point.
Price is compressing, and the next move likely defines short-term direction.
As long as support holds, upside remains open. Lose it with volume, and momentum flips fast.
Key levels we’re watching:
Support: $86,700 → critical level bulls must defend
Resistance: $94,000 → first major take-profit zone on longs
Breakdown trigger: High-volume close below $86,700
Downside target: $76,000 → first take-profit zone on shorts
Invalidation: Clean break and acceptance below $86,700 shifts bias bearish
Directional Bias: Neutral → reactive
What we’re waiting for:
Bullish scenario: Hold above $86,700 → spot bids or low-leverage longs favored
Bearish scenario: High-volume breakdown → shorts favored toward $76K
Confirmation: Volume expansion in either direction
Maple Is Standing Out in DeFi Lending
What’s going on:
Maple Finance has been one of the more resilient lending protocols this year.
SYRUP is up about +100% YTD, outperforming most money market peers, many of which remain flat or negative. That strength follows Maple’s post-2022 shift to a fully secured, institutional lending model, with capital deployed against BTC and other liquid collateral.
Deposits now exceed $4B, with strong growth in both deposits and outstanding loans, pointing to higher utilization rather than idle liquidity.
Competitive yields from syrupUSDC and broader DeFi integrations have supported that growth, though yields have begun to compress.
What it means:
Maple’s performance doesn’t eliminate risk, but it highlights how a more conservative lending model can hold up better in difficult markets.
So far, durability and capital efficiency have mattered more than aggressive growth.
 | AERO: |
 | UNI: |
 | HYPE: |
Who really owns a DeFi protocol like Aave? |
If crypto really is heading toward a $10T market cap, the biggest risk isn’t volatility, it’s being positioned wrong.
Cycles stretch, narratives rotate, and prices lag fundamentals longer than people expect.
The goal isn’t to chase noise or survive on hope, it’s to own the assets that actually capture value when the next leg arrives.
If this space is going to grow that big, we want to make sure we extract as much upside from it as possible.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.