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- $11T Just Became Eligible for Crypto
$11T Just Became Eligible for Crypto
PLUS: QT Is Over
Welcome back to The Warmup.
Crypto sentiment is flipping faster than a memecoin, and everyone’s stress-gambling on Polymarket just to feel something.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
$11T Just Became Eligible for Crypto
SOL Breakout Setup
QT Is Over But Don’t Call It QE Yet
Market: SOL and ETH are leading a strong crypto push while stocks cool off, helped by a softer dollar and rising volatility.
$11T Just Became Eligible for Crypto
What’s going on:
Vanguard, one of the biggest asset managers on the planet, just opened the door for its clients to invest in crypto ETFs. This is the same Vanguard that has historically avoided crypto entirely, so the pivot is a big deal.
Their clients control roughly $11T in assets. Now all that capital can choose to allocate a portion into Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP and any other token with a US based ETF.
When an institution of this size changes its stance, it signals that customer demand has gotten too loud to ignore.
This is not Vanguard suddenly becoming pro crypto. This is Vanguard giving in to the inevitable.
What it means:
Even a small allocation from this pool is massive. A 1% shift would mean $110B flowing into crypto assets and ETFs over time.
This does not guarantee an immediate surge, but it dramatically expands the ceiling for institutional inflows. It opens the door for other traditional giants to follow and it accelerates crypto’s integration into mainstream portfolios.
It is a meaningful long term tailwind and a sign that crypto has moved from fringe investment to accepted asset class.
SOL Breakout Setup
What’s going on:
SOL bounced hard off the $123 support zone and is now pressing directly into the $144 resistance block. Momentum is shifting bullish, and price is setting up for a potential breakout if buyers can finally crack this ceiling.
Key levels we’re watching:
Support: $134 → short-term higher-low structure
Major support: $121–123 → confirmed demand zone
Breakout level: $144 → key level to flip
Breakout target: $152 → first extension
Secondary target: $156–160 if momentum accelerates
Breakdown risk: Lose $120 and breakout setup weakens
Directional Bias: Cautiously bullish
Price reclaimed structure, formed a higher low, and is now coiling under resistance.
What we’re waiting for:
4H close above $144
Retest of $144 holding as support
Volume expansion confirming breakout
SOL is now in breakout mode, all it needs is a clean reclaim of $144 to unlock the next leg higher.
QT Is Over But Don’t Call It QE Yet
What’s going on:
The Federal Reserve officially ended Quantitative Tightening this week after nearly four years of shrinking its balance sheet.
That sounds huge, but the truth is the pace of QT had already slowed to almost nothing since March, so the liquidity boost from stopping it is barely noticeable.
People online are acting like QE just came back from vacation. It didn’t.
The Fed will likely start expanding its balance sheet again in early 2026. Goldman expects around 20 billion dollars a month in Treasury bill purchases to keep bank reserves stable.
But this is not real QE.
Real QE removes duration risk and meaningfully pushes asset prices higher. This new phase does none of that. It is slow, small, and focused on short-term bills instead of long-term bonds.
What it means:
Ending QT is slightly positive for liquidity, but nowhere close to the stimulus wave people are hyping. The upcoming balance sheet expansion will not move risk assets in a major way.
For real QE to return, something big has to break. That could be a Treasury market shock, a recession, or a systemic crisis. Until then, expect a mild trickle of support instead of a flood.
It is a constructive environment, just not a 2020 style melt-up.
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What does Vanguard’s crypto flip really mean? |
The big lesson is simple: zoom out.
Crypto’s volatility is brutal, but the long-term fundamentals are stronger than ever.
Corrections happen, cycles repeat, and the real wealth goes to those who survive the noise and stay focused on the next decade, not the next week.
If you keep your horizon long and your conviction steady, the upside ahead is far greater than anything we’ve seen so far.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.